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Barrick Mining Stock Down 6% in a Month: What Should Investors Do Now?
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Key Takeaways
Barrick stock fell 6.4% in a month, pressured by weaker gold prices amid inflation fears.
Barrick's growth projects and strong cash flows support production and shareholder returns.
Higher costs and softer 2026 production outlook may weigh on margins and near-term performance.
Barrick Mining Corporation’s (B - Free Report) shares have lost 6.4% in the past month, led by the recent pullback in gold prices as heightened tensions in the Middle East triggered inflation concerns.
Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s decline of 11% while underperforming the S&P 500’s growth of 9.9%. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) , Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) have lost 4.9%, 8.9% and 15%, respectively, over the same period.
B’s One-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
B stock is currently trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). It broke above its 200-day SMA yesterday after slipping below that level a day before. The 50-day SMA has been reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
B Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at Barrick’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Growth Projects to Underpin Production Upside for Barrick
Barrick is well-positioned to capitalize on advancements across its key growth projects, which are expected to meaningfully boost production. Its major gold and copper initiatives, such as Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are progressing on schedule and within budget, setting the stage for the next wave of profitable output.
The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the Fourmile project, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. Barrick recently announced the advancement of its planned IPO (expected to be completed by the end of 2026) of a new company that will hold its North American gold assets and the Fourmile project, in which it will hold a significant controlling interest. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase.
The $2-billion Super Pit Expansion Project at Barrick’s Lumwana mine is progressing steadily, accelerating its shift into a Tier One copper mine. Barrick stated that the Lumwana expansion is the result of a significant turnaround, transforming the mine from an underperforming asset into a vital part of both its global copper portfolio and Zambia’s long-term development strategy. The expansion is expected to produce 240,000 tons of copper annually.
Robust Liquidity & Cash Flows Back B’s Capital Allocation
Barrick maintains a strong liquidity position and robust cash flow generation, enabling it to capitalize on compelling development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, enhance shareholder value and lower debt. At the end of fourth-quarter 2025, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $6.7 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter, up 13% year over year, while free cash flow rose 9% year over year to around $1.6 billion. For full-year 2025, operating cash flow surged 71% to around $7.7 billion, and free cash flow shot up 194% to $3.9 billion.
Barrick returned $2.4 billion to its shareholders in 2025 through dividends and repurchases. It repurchased shares worth $1.5 billion during 2025, including $500 million in the fourth quarter. The company increased its dividend to 42 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 140% increase over the third quarter. It also announced a new dividend policy that targets a total payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow on an annualized basis.
Barrick offers a dividend yield of 4.4% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 29% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 13.3%.
Favorable Gold Prices to Aid B’s Margins and Cash Flow
While gold prices have eased from the record highs logged earlier this year, they remain supportive. Favorable gold prices should translate into higher realized prices, leading to strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick.
Bullion prices rocketed to a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. This was followed by a brief pullback to below $4,900 per ounce due to aggressive profit-booking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Bullion strengthened again, surging past $5,400 per ounce on March 2, as safe-haven demand spiked, following joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. A stronger U.S. dollar, inflation fears tied to a spike in oil prices and the Fed’s hawkish tone weighed on gold prices, dragging bullion to near $4,400 per ounce in late March.
Gold surged to near $4,800 per ounce in early April after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to crashing oil prices and easing inflation worries. This was followed by another brief pullback on inflation concerns following failed U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and the announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices again gained ground, surpassing $4,800 per ounce as oil prices fell on hopes of a U.S.-Iran truce, before slipping to near $4,700 per ounce on continued geopolitical tensions despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension.
Bullion further fell to a one-month low below $4,600 per ounce last week, stemming from inflation worries from a surge in oil prices amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pulled down prices further to around $4,500 per ounce early this week, before climbing back above $4,600 per ounce yesterday on hopes of de-escalation and easing oil prices.
Barrick Hamstrung by Higher Production Costs
Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may weigh on its margins. Its total cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 15% and 9% year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter, and rose from the previous quarter as well. AISC of $1,581 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. AISC also rose 10% year over year to $1,637 in 2025. Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, contributed to the rise in its unit costs.
For 2026, Barrick projects AISC in the range of $1,760-$1,950 per ounce, indicating a significant year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Cash costs per ounce are forecast to be $1,330-$1,470, up from $1,199 in 2025.
Tepid Production View Dampens B’s Prospects
Certain operational issues adversely impacted Barrick’s gold production for full-year 2025. The company’s attributable gold production fell around 17% year over year to roughly 3.26 million ounces in 2025.
The company provided a tepid forecast for 2026, with attributable gold production expected to be in the range of 2.9-3.25 million ounces. While Loulo-Gounkoto is poised to deliver additional production along with modestly higher output from Pueblo Viejo, production is expected to be lower across Veladero, North Mara and Carlin in 2026. Turquoise Ridge is also projected to see lower grades. Weak production is expected to weigh on the company’s performance in the near term. Despite gains in realized gold prices, production growth would be critical to sustain revenues and margins in the coming quarters.
What B’s Earnings Estimates Indicate
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B for 2026 has been revised lower over the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 47.1%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look at Barrick Stock’s Valuation
B stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 10.25X, a roughly 3.3% discount to the industry’s average of 10.6X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle, Newmont and Kinross Gold. Barrick, Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of C.
B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, AEM & KGC
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion: Hold Onto B Shares
Barrick’s initiatives to boost production, its strong balance sheet, solid earnings prospects, attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield present a favorable setup. Favorable gold prices should further aid margins and cash flows. Higher production costs and a soft production outlook, however, call for caution. Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Barrick Mining Stock Down 6% in a Month: What Should Investors Do Now?
Key Takeaways
Barrick Mining Corporation’s (B - Free Report) shares have lost 6.4% in the past month, led by the recent pullback in gold prices as heightened tensions in the Middle East triggered inflation concerns.
Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s decline of 11% while underperforming the S&P 500’s growth of 9.9%. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) , Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) have lost 4.9%, 8.9% and 15%, respectively, over the same period.
B’s One-month Price Performance
B stock is currently trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). It broke above its 200-day SMA yesterday after slipping below that level a day before. The 50-day SMA has been reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
B Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Let’s take a look at Barrick’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Growth Projects to Underpin Production Upside for Barrick
Barrick is well-positioned to capitalize on advancements across its key growth projects, which are expected to meaningfully boost production. Its major gold and copper initiatives, such as Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are progressing on schedule and within budget, setting the stage for the next wave of profitable output.
The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the Fourmile project, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. Barrick recently announced the advancement of its planned IPO (expected to be completed by the end of 2026) of a new company that will hold its North American gold assets and the Fourmile project, in which it will hold a significant controlling interest. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase.
The $2-billion Super Pit Expansion Project at Barrick’s Lumwana mine is progressing steadily, accelerating its shift into a Tier One copper mine. Barrick stated that the Lumwana expansion is the result of a significant turnaround, transforming the mine from an underperforming asset into a vital part of both its global copper portfolio and Zambia’s long-term development strategy. The expansion is expected to produce 240,000 tons of copper annually.
Robust Liquidity & Cash Flows Back B’s Capital Allocation
Barrick maintains a strong liquidity position and robust cash flow generation, enabling it to capitalize on compelling development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, enhance shareholder value and lower debt. At the end of fourth-quarter 2025, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $6.7 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter, up 13% year over year, while free cash flow rose 9% year over year to around $1.6 billion. For full-year 2025, operating cash flow surged 71% to around $7.7 billion, and free cash flow shot up 194% to $3.9 billion.
Barrick returned $2.4 billion to its shareholders in 2025 through dividends and repurchases. It repurchased shares worth $1.5 billion during 2025, including $500 million in the fourth quarter. The company increased its dividend to 42 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 140% increase over the third quarter. It also announced a new dividend policy that targets a total payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow on an annualized basis.
Barrick offers a dividend yield of 4.4% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 29% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 13.3%.
Favorable Gold Prices to Aid B’s Margins and Cash Flow
While gold prices have eased from the record highs logged earlier this year, they remain supportive. Favorable gold prices should translate into higher realized prices, leading to strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick.
Bullion prices rocketed to a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. This was followed by a brief pullback to below $4,900 per ounce due to aggressive profit-booking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Bullion strengthened again, surging past $5,400 per ounce on March 2, as safe-haven demand spiked, following joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. A stronger U.S. dollar, inflation fears tied to a spike in oil prices and the Fed’s hawkish tone weighed on gold prices, dragging bullion to near $4,400 per ounce in late March.
Gold surged to near $4,800 per ounce in early April after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, leading to crashing oil prices and easing inflation worries. This was followed by another brief pullback on inflation concerns following failed U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and the announcement of a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices again gained ground, surpassing $4,800 per ounce as oil prices fell on hopes of a U.S.-Iran truce, before slipping to near $4,700 per ounce on continued geopolitical tensions despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension.
Bullion further fell to a one-month low below $4,600 per ounce last week, stemming from inflation worries from a surge in oil prices amid stalled U.S.-Iran talks and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pulled down prices further to around $4,500 per ounce early this week, before climbing back above $4,600 per ounce yesterday on hopes of de-escalation and easing oil prices.
Barrick Hamstrung by Higher Production Costs
Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may weigh on its margins. Its total cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 15% and 9% year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter, and rose from the previous quarter as well. AISC of $1,581 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. AISC also rose 10% year over year to $1,637 in 2025. Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, contributed to the rise in its unit costs.
For 2026, Barrick projects AISC in the range of $1,760-$1,950 per ounce, indicating a significant year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Cash costs per ounce are forecast to be $1,330-$1,470, up from $1,199 in 2025.
Tepid Production View Dampens B’s Prospects
Certain operational issues adversely impacted Barrick’s gold production for full-year 2025. The company’s attributable gold production fell around 17% year over year to roughly 3.26 million ounces in 2025.
The company provided a tepid forecast for 2026, with attributable gold production expected to be in the range of 2.9-3.25 million ounces. While Loulo-Gounkoto is poised to deliver additional production along with modestly higher output from Pueblo Viejo, production is expected to be lower across Veladero, North Mara and Carlin in 2026. Turquoise Ridge is also projected to see lower grades. Weak production is expected to weigh on the company’s performance in the near term. Despite gains in realized gold prices, production growth would be critical to sustain revenues and margins in the coming quarters.
What B’s Earnings Estimates Indicate
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B for 2026 has been revised lower over the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 47.1%.
A Look at Barrick Stock’s Valuation
B stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 10.25X, a roughly 3.3% discount to the industry’s average of 10.6X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle, Newmont and Kinross Gold. Barrick, Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of C.
B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, AEM & KGC
Conclusion: Hold Onto B Shares
Barrick’s initiatives to boost production, its strong balance sheet, solid earnings prospects, attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield present a favorable setup. Favorable gold prices should further aid margins and cash flows. Higher production costs and a soft production outlook, however, call for caution. Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.